Date—June 14, 2022

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Stories

1. Three thousand Britons are fighting on the side of Ukraine. The British make up the second-largest foreign military contingent after the Georgians. In third place are US citizens. Most foreigners came to work as instructors and now perform mentoring functions. In total, up to 20,000 foreigners can fight in Ukraine. Two Britons, Jordan Gatley, and Scott Sibley were killed in Ukraine. Two more, Sean Pinner and Aiden Eslin, were taken, prisoner. As of May 20, it was known about the death of 11 Georgian volunteers. Earlier today, the “International Legion” representative, Damien Magru said that representatives of 55 countries from all continents are fighting in Ukraine. (Source: Telegram).

2. Ukrainian journalists “Suspilne” Christina Gavrilyuk and Taras Ibragimov came under fire in Lysychansk. Ukrainian soldiers evacuated them from the shelling zone, no one was hurt. (Source: Twitter).

War

1. The mayor of the city of Svyatogorsk in the Donetsk region, which came under the control of Russian troops, Vladimir Bandura, went over to the side of the Russian-backed separatists of the self-proclaimed “DNR.” He will continue to lead the city administration – now by appointment of the separatist leader Denis Pushilin. Back in May, Bandura called the Russians occupiers, but, according to Pushilin’s telegram channel, he had been “in touch” with the separatists for a long time but “concealed” his beliefs. Ukrainian authorities have previously opened a criminal case against the head of Svyatogorsk after he accused Ukrainian soldiers of setting fire to the All Saints Skete of the Svyatogorsk Lavra and called on President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender. The Ukrainian military accused the advancing Russian troops of shelling the Lavra. Bandura was elected mayor in 2020 from the Opposition Platform. For Life party, considered pro-Russian in Ukraine, acted legally and was one of the most prominent political forces in the east of the country. Earlier, the mayor of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region went over to the side of Russia. In other occupied cities, such as Kherson, Melitopol, and Energodar, the mayors refused to cooperate with the Russian troops, and the occupation administrations were headed either by local deputies from the Opposition Platform for Life or by former leaders. (Source: Svoboda).

2. During the street fighting, Russian troops managed to oust the Ukrainian military from the center of Severodonetsk. About 70 percent of the city’s territory is now under Russian control. The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, reported on capturing residential areas of the town about two weeks ago, but all this time, the fighting continued there. Now the Ukrainian military mainly controls the industrial zone’s territory in the east of the city. Several hundred civilians at the Azot plant are hiding there from shelling. On the eve, it was reported about the destruction of all bridges connecting Severodonetsk and Lysychansk remaining under the control of Ukraine. This city is also being shelled. Three civilians, including a child, have died there over the past 24 hours. Another blow was inflicted on Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Russian troops are also trying to surround Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. In addition, the attack on Sloviansk continues. However, according to the Ukrainian side, the Russian military cannot move forward. Separatists of the so-called “DPR” on Monday said that three people were killed due to the shelling of one of the districts of Donetsk. It is alleged that the indoor market, where people were located, was hit. (Source: Svoboda).

Opinions

1. Despite Russia’s increased funding for military spending, the country will have problems replenishing its equipment due to Western sanctions and a lack of experience in some areas. On June 10, the first deputy head of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation predicted that public spending on the army would increase by 600-700 billion rubles, which could mean an increase in funding by about 20%. “State funding will allow the country’s defense industry to slowly mobilize to meet the needs of the war against Ukraine. However, many of these needs may be completed partly by sanctions and a lack of experience. Production of high-quality optics and advanced electronics is complex, and this could undermine efforts to replace equipment lost in Ukraine, “the review said. (Source: UP).

2. Guriev: The European Council has instructed the European Commission to study when Western countries will pay less for Russian oil and gas and impose secondary sanctions on third parties who pay more to Russia. “The upper price threshold can be introduced immediately (for example, $ 70 per barrel), and each month, as long as the war lasts, it will be reduced by about $10,” said Sergei Guriev, a former EBRD chief economist. Yes, Putin may refuse to sell oil at that price. But this is unlikely because it is already so desperate that it sells oil to China and India at significant discounts. In addition, current energy prices far exceed the cost of production. On the contrary, Russia will likely continue to supply oil and gas to Western buyers at a set price, and buyers such as China and India will not pay more because of the threat of sanctions. This will free consumers from high energy prices and lead to a sharp decline in Russia’s income. One might say that the introduction of upper price thresholds distorts incentives – in which case the incentives will shift to renewable energy. But such an argument applies only to competitive markets. In today’s oil and gas market, prices far exceed marginal costs. The global oil cartel OPEC + (including Russia) has only recently agreed to increase oil production in July and August. (Source: NV).

Economy, Social life, and Culture

1. The process of seizing the assets of MR Bank (formerly Sberbank) and Prominvestbank, which belonged to Russia’s state-owned Sberbank and WEB.RF was suspended on May 19. The state has not yet confiscated UAH 25.6 billion in assets from these financial institutions. In May, the Verkhovna Rada passed a special law implementing the decision of the National Security and Defense Council, and the law came into force on May 19. Since then, there has been no progress in recovering the assets of Russian subsidiaries’ daughters. UAH 11.065 billion (hryvnia equivalent of foreign currency) and UAH 5.8 billion should be transferred to state revenue. funds of MR Bank, and UAH 259.2 million. – Name. Also, 8,540,205 IGLBs are subject to confiscation for a total nominal value of UAH 8.54 billion, “the National Bank explains.” The National Investment Fund, which the government set up on March 31. According to the National Bank, the account has not been opened yet. The law defining the main approaches to the forcible seizure of Russian assets came into force on May 19, 2022. We expect the confiscation to take place as soon as possible. We are convinced that the assets of the banks owned by the aggressor state should work in Ukraine’s favor, “the regulator added. (Source: UP).

2. On June 14, Lviv’s Eighth Court of Appeals banned former Nashi’s party, former Yevgeny Muraev, which the Justice Ministry considers pro-Russian. According to activists, this is the fourth banned pro-Russian party. The court will now consider cases against four more parties, including the parties of two traitors, Vladimir Saldo and Natalia Vitrenko. According to the court decision, the property of the Nashi party and all its branches is transferred to the state. But the decision itself can be appealed to the Supreme Court. The ministry’s arguments are currently unknown to the public, as a panel of judges consisting of Matkovska, Kuzmich, and Ulytsky did not allow journalists and members of the public to attend. The reason for non-admission was quarantine restrictions and an internal court order. However, the day before, on June 13, such conditions did not prevent public hearings of similar cases against the Socialists and Justice and Development parties, and activists covered the court hearings. (Source: UP).

3. Since March, police officers in the Rostov region have been sent on business trips to the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Most often, these are business trips to large cities of Donbas: Lugansk, Donetsk, Makiivka, Gorlovka, and others. The extent to which these are mass and regular events is not specified. “Someone spends a month there. Someone remains as if at a permanent place of deployment. They monitor law and order in the city like ordinary police officers: draw up protocols, and go to calls. Perhaps this is since most of the LPR and DPR police officers are on a special operation, and there is no one to protect the cities,” said one of the publication’s interlocutors. Officially, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Rostov region stated that they do not have information about police trips to Donbas. (Source: Meduza).

4. In January-May 2022, Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises reduced their total rolled metal production by 52.7% compared to the same period in 2021. Thus, for the first five months of 2022: pig iron smelting amounted to 4.15 million tons (46.7% compared to January-May 2021); steel smelting amounted to 4.24 million tons (47.2%); rolled metal production amounted to 3.79 million tons (47.3%). Earlier it was reported that due to Russian aggression, Ukraine rolled back to 36th place in the ranking of world steel producers, although in 2021 it ranked 14th. (Source: NV).

Invasion Damage

1. The mayor of Mariupol, Vadim Boychenko, believes that the capture of the city took place, among other things, because a number of the city’s residents worked for Russia. He claims that the traitors gave important coordinates to the Russian forces in advance. “They knew where to shoot. There were a lot of traitors who gave coordinates. Everything we had, considered the city’s critical infrastructure, was destroyed in the first seven days. There are fifteen power sources in the city. Even the mayor did not know where they were everyone knew, and in a week they destroyed all 15. The city was left without electricity,” Boychenko says. He accuses deputies of the city council from the pro-Russian party “Opposition Platform – For Life” of betrayal. Now they run the city, which is under Russian occupation. The bodies of many victims are still lying in bombed-out houses. “There are no hospitals, no doctors. The Russians steal equipment from hospitals that were not damaged during the fighting and take it to Donetsk. People queue for days for water and fight for food. The Russians forced people to clean up the ruins in exchange for water. City closed. No one is allowed in or released,” Boychenko describes the situation. (Source: BBC).

Foreign news

1. The US government is encouraging agricultural and shipping companies to buy and ship Russian fertilizers to slow the rise in global food prices. These actions are “part of complex negotiations with the UN to increase the supply of fertilizers, grains and agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine.” An insufficient supply of minerals could affect next year’s 2023 harvest. The US and EU have removed fertilizers from their sanctions lists, but carriers, banks, and insurance companies have refrained from such deals because of the risk of violating the restrictions. “There are no sanctions against the supply of Russian fertilizers now, and it is unlikely that they will be. After the sanctions were imposed against the supply of fertilizer from Belarus, world agricultural production can hardly afford to abandon Russian fertilizers. This would further drive up the prices of fertilizers and made them inaccessible to certain countries,” Finam analyst Alexei Kalachev said. The source spoke about problems with payments: “Western banks are so intimidated by possible sanctions that they arrange additional reviews of contracts for the supply of fertilizers. As a result, a number of consumers cannot transfer money to the delivery account on time.” (Source: Bloomberg).

Refugees

1. Almost 10% of those several million Ukrainians who fled the war are not going to return to their homeland, and virtually the same number are hesitant. Since the Russian attack, about five million people have left the country, and almost two million have returned. The well-known Ukrainian demographer Ella Libanova believes that the longer the war lasts, the more there will be those who do not want to return: people will have time to adapt to new conditions and learn the language. Families with many children and people with special needs may not return – they will receive more assistance in developed countries. Ukrainians who find work in Europe will not return either. Finally, many have nowhere to return to, and not all of them will be able to settle in relatively safe regions of Ukraine. The scale of emigration will increase when their husbands come to the refugee women. (Source: BBC).