Date—June 20, 2022

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War

1. Gaidai: UAF lost control of Metolkine near Severodonetsk, and the enemy intensified artillery and air shelling of the Luhansk region. Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional military administration, said: “The racists have intensified artillery and air strikes. “Fighting is taking place in many villages around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Unfortunately, we do not currently control Metolkine near the regional center.” Russian invaders continue to use “creeping” tactics – Luhansk region is destroyed with all possible weapons. At the same time, the head of the OBA said that a “quiet” evacuation from Lysychansk was underway – by military administration staff, police, rescuers and volunteers. From the settlements where active hostilities continue, people are taken out by the military on armored vehicles. The General Staff announced the partial success of the enemy in Metolkin as a result of the assault on the evening of June 18. (Source: Telegram).

2. On Snake Island, residents of the district counted 35 explosions on the night of June 20, but so far there is no official information. This is stated in the interception of radio communication on the VHF, an open marine rescue channel that reflects recent events on the island. (Source: YouTube).

Opinions

1. ISW: The Kremlin continues to view its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a war, and is actively obstructing Russia’s armed forces. Russian authorities are trying to find legal means to punish “military dissidents” and those who refuse to mobilize, as the definition of the conflict in Ukraine as a “special military operation” excludes legal sanctions that could be applied during an officially declared war. The Russian authorities are probably seeking to use war crimes trials against captured Ukrainian servicemen, including those defending Mariupol. They intend to try them in accordance with the law of the so-called “DPR”, which, in particular, allows the death penalty, in contrast to Russian law. The Russian government is likely to “use these lawsuits to tighten control over the occupied territories and further demoralize Ukrainian defenders” також and to promote Kremlin propaganda “about invading Ukraine in order to “denazify” it. Russian troops continue to prepare for an offensive on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of the Lyman. Successful counterattacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Zaporizhia region are forcing Russian troops to throw reinforcements at this weakened front-line sector. mobilize and create hostility among locals toward the Armed Forces. (Source: ISW).

2. Gaidai: UAF lost control of Metolkine near Severodonetsk, and the enemy intensified artillery and air shelling of the Luhansk region. Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional military administration, said: “The racists have intensified artillery and air strikes. “Fighting is taking place in many villages around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Unfortunately, we do not currently control Metolkine near the regional center.” Russian invaders continue to use “creeping” tactics – Luhansk region is destroyed with all possible weapons. At the same time, the head of the OBA said that a “quiet” evacuation from Lysychansk was underway – by military administration staff, police, rescuers and volunteers. From the settlements where active hostilities continue, people are taken out by the military on armored vehicles. The General Staff announced the partial success of the enemy in Metolkin as a result of the assault on the evening of June 18. (Source: Telegram).

3. Russia’s air force in the war with Ukraine proved ineffective, and this could be one of the determinants of Russia’s minimal success. Until now, the Russian Air Force has not been effective. Their inability to provide ongoing air support has probably been one of the most critical factors in Russia’s campaign’s minimal success. They cannot gain the full advantage in the air and operate on the principle of less risk, only occasionally going deep into Ukrainian lines. The reasons for this situation are probably similar to those with the ground forces. Over the years, most air force training has likely been scripted and designed to impress the authorities rather than develop the initiative of the crews. Although Russia has an impressive fleet of modern and combat-ready combat aircraft, the Air Force has almost certainly not developed an institutional culture and acquired skills that would match the desire for a more Western-style air campaign. As a result, more effort has been put into ground forces, and they are depleting faster, as well as the use of cruise missiles, which are probably running out. (Source: Twitter).

Military Help

1. Poland’s security services say the country has been “under Russian scrutiny” for a long time, said Stanislaw Zaryn, a spokesman for Poland services. “For many years, Poland has been targeted by Russia, which uses propaganda and misinformation against Poland. The Kremlin is taking various measures, resulting in a blow to the fundamental right of Poles to their statehood and security. Russia is trying to convince Russian society and the West about subjectivity. It should not be taken seriously by allies and should be a “gray area” between NATO and Russia,” he said. (Source: Twitter).

Invasion Damage

1. The media have identified more than 2,000 munitions used by Russia in Ukraine since the start of the war and concluded that most of them were unguided. At the same time, 210 identified munitions are prohibited by international treaties. (Source: WP).

Foreign news

1. The International Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) has released a report on a network of disinformers who have been spreading online allegedly false messages about the state of affairs in Syria since 2015. It was possible to identify 28 authors acting in concert. According to published data, the Russian authorities supported the disinformation campaign, mainly through the Russian embassies in Syria and the UK. Civil unrest in Syria began in 2011, but the network of disinformers started to work in 2015 when the Russian military intervened in the Syrian conflict. The main target of the disinformers was the White Helmets organization, which was engaged in rescuing the victims and published information about the actual state of affairs. Thus, the White Helmets were the first to report the use of chemical weapons by the troops of Bashar al-Assad in 2017: then, as a result of a gas attack, at least 83 people died, a third of them were children. The use of poisonous gases in Syria confirmed a UN investigation, but a network of disinformers claimed that the published footage was staged using hired actors. Disinformers accused the White Helmets of collaborating with the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, and the conspiracy was financed, in their opinion, by structures of George Soros. The network published more than 47,000 posts on the Internet, which managed to mislead even official systems and the media. The most notable of its participants, British blogger Vanessa Beely, repeatedly flew to Moscow with reports on the situation in Syria. She met, in particular, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. Later, the Russian Federation submitted its reports to the Security Council and the UN General Assembly as evidence against the activities of the White Helmets. One of the media interlocutors, who previously held a post in the US State Department, believes Syria acted as a training ground for the information war. The techniques worked out there are now used by Russia when describing the situation in Ukraine and other countries. (Source: Svoboda).2. India sharply increased purchases of coal and oil from Russia in late May and early June – against the backdrop of decisions by the US and the EU to impose an embargo on the supply of these types of fuel from Russia in connection with the war in Ukraine. From May 27 to June 15, India bought six times more Russian coal than in the same period last year and 31 times more oil. In total, during this time, India bought Russian coal for a total amount of more than $330 million and oil for more than $2.2 billion. At the same time, traders say that energy products are sold at significant discounts, which can reach 30 percent. Transactions are made in Dubai and Singapore. Russian traders accept payments in dollars and Indian rupees or dirhams in the United Arab Emirates. India did not join the sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia and did not condemn the aggression against Ukraine, although it did not support it. The media reported that the United States, recognizing India’s right to buy Russian energy resources, asked Delhi not to increase the volume of supplies sharply. According to the Center for the Study of Energy and Clean Air (CREA), despite the growth in imports, India is still not among the leading importers of Russian energy resources. As of the beginning of June, it was in 9th place in terms of supplies, after countries such as China, Turkey, South Korea, and some EU countries. On June 3, the EU Council formally approved the sixth package of sanctions concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. EU decided to stop importing Russian oil within six months and from importing oil products within eight months. An exception is provided for the import of crude oil through the pipeline. Earlier, the EU imposed an embargo on coal supplies from Russia. (Source: Reuters).