Date—May 2, 2022

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Stories

1. The Belgorod region of the Russian Federation declare “two strong gaps” which were heard in the oblast, the governor of the Belgorod region Vyacheslav Gladkov reports. He adds that there are no injuries or damage, no casualties, and “footage of flashes in the sky has already appeared on social networks.” (Source: Telegram).

War

1. Danilchenko: In Afghanistan, due to constant explosions and land mines, the USSR lost 147 tanks over a decade of conflict. In the two months and a half of the war in Ukraine, the Russian Federation lost 590 vehicles according to photos and videos alone – these are horrendous losses in such a short time. Moreover, the battlefield is more often left behind by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means we can carry out repairs on both our broken equipment and the enemy. As a result, Kyiv will put into operation most of the damaged “bears”. The Russians lost a huge amount of armored and wheeled vehicles – 23-24 battalion sets. In general, tank, mechanized and motorized units lost a total of 40 sets of equipment for BTG. The third part of those prepared before February 24th. The human losses of the Russian Federation are also impressive. And the best barometer here is not the reports of the Pentagon and British intelligence about at least 15 thousand dead. And not the official data of the DPR, according to which every third member of the 1st Army Corps has already been killed or wounded. The best barometer here is the sharply fallen enemy capabilities. The Russian army suffered an operational defeat near Kyiv, Nikolaev, during an attempt to force the Southern Bug, near Sumy and Chernigov. In February – March, the enemy could still attack simultaneously in several directions. And now he is blocking Azovstal, talking about Mariupol. It is engaged in heavy defensive battles in the zone near Kharkov, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a result of private counterattacks, managed to capture Tsirkuny and move towards the direction of Stary Saltov. And he defends the line at Kherson – having essentially lost the opportunity to act on the entire theater of operations. The troops of the Russian Federation are still rushing to the Liman, trying to saddle the road to Barvenkovo ​​and cover the Severodonetsk ledge. This is a serious and dangerous enemy – with a significant advantage in aviation, they have the same Orlans as a fool candy wrappers and a dozen and a half battalions in reserve. But these are no longer breakthroughs to the depth of the supply of BTG tanks in the south, east and north, plus parallel assaults on Mariupol, Popasna, Avdiivka, essentially head-on, multi-day and simultaneous. (Source: Site.ua).

2. British intelligence says that Russia has deployed more than 120 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, which is 65% of its ground forces. “At the beginning of the conflict, Russia deployed more than 120 battalion tactical groups, representing about 65 percent of its entire ground forces,” the statement said. It is likely that more than a quarter of these units are currently incapacitated. (Source: Twitter).

Opinions

1. Dykyj: In fact, while we were discussing the battle for the capital in the first place, the war in Donbas lasted for two months in a completely different way than in Polissya and Slobozhanshchyna. For more than two months, enemy aircraft practiced our positions there every day, then the artillery entered, and while the artillery forced the defenders not to move out of the trenches, their infantry approached our positions, so immediately after the last shell burst a close contact battle began. This is a World War II-style front, and it is on it, not Chechnya or Afghanistan, that we need to focus on understanding the nature of our war in the next few months. There will be no more rapid movements of troops in this war, a kaleidoscope of occupied – liberated – re-occupied – once again liberated cities, a bizarre mosaic of the Armed Forces, Troy, various “special forces” and even more diverse guerrilla units. The war becomes regular, “correct”, the main role in the war finally passes to the Armed Forces, all the rest only “on the rise” sometimes when necessary. And the country is clearly divided into occupied territories, front, front line, and rear. The rear will feed the front and provide a place of rest for those who hold it, and the front will first hold the blow of the enemy offensive, and then slowly go on the offensive for the liberation of the occupied territories.

The difference between the front and the rear will be slightly blurred by constant missile strikes across the country (do not be lulled by illusions – the supply of missiles in the orcs is still considerable, though not infinite). But come on, my cats and bunnies, from time to time to respond to air alarms (or as the author of this opus has long been unresponsive) – is not the same as living and working within reach of art, and even more so not to take the fight. So the rear will still be the rear, and the sounds of sirens will not allow us to break away from reality and decide that the war affects only those who are currently at the “front” (as it was the last eight years, between the ATO and the Great Invasion).

I’ll start with the last ones. Deoccupation is inevitable, but it will be slow. The enemy had two months to prepare for the defense of the captured territories during the first month, and he did not heal those two months. Unfortunately, now we have to repel every occupied city in heavy offensive battles, it will take time and many lives. So if someone does not leave the occupation in the hope that the South will soon repeat the history of the liberated north – it should not be done. If there is even a small hole through which you can go to our side of the front – you should do it as soon as possible because these holes are getting tighter every day, and soon they may not be at all.

The new timeline requires a rethinking of everyone’s place and role in our common war, and the restructuring of their lives to the realities of this stage. First of all, we need to accept the realities of a different timeline. The regime of “one very long day” and the tension of all forces “on the spur of the moment” was inevitable at the beginning of the war, but now it leads to excessive fatigue, which is unacceptable in the long run and ends in exhaustion. Ironically, you should start painting your time, allocate work and rest separately, establish a temporary, but still arranged life, and even develop new daily habits.

This war should not be survived, much less wait, but lived. From a catastrophe, extreme state, or accident, it should become in our perception one of the periods of life of each of us, as they were school, university, conscription, and so on. Each of us must live our own war calmly, thoughtfully, and at the same time stubbornly, and only in this way will we all have enough strength to live to victory. And before setting up your new long-term military life, you should sit back and think calmly about where each of us can be most useful, and who will have enough strength and resources. The capital and the North in general clearly do not need so much terrorist defense at this stage of the war, the same applies to the central regions of the country, not to mention the West (which did not need it so much before).

So each of us, who in the first days of the war found his place in the ranks of the Troops, must think carefully about whether to continue to remain a fighter, but hundreds of kilometers from the front at unnecessary checkpoints, or to decide on one of three ways – to the ranks of the Armed Forces at the front (or to those units of the Troop, which will be reorganized into de facto regular infantry units and also sent to the East and South), to the reduced units of Troops, or back to a peaceful life and profession.

The latter solution is no less worthy of the first two, especially when it comes to people who create added value, jobs, and pay taxes – the front will require many resources, and the more active all possible businesses, the more these resources will be available. Guys, it’s good to be fed on volunteer sandwiches on the blocks, rested, and enough! The funny adventure is over, it’s time to plow and earn again!

It’s the same with volunteering – everyone has to evaluate their strengths and resources. Who has the opportunity to continue to support himself, plus to devote time to full-time volunteer assistance to the front or weaker civilians – fine, unfortunately, and the front and many of our fellow citizens in the rear will need help for a long time. But perhaps some of us should first consider the possibility of returning to pre-war work, or finding a new one, and devote only some time to volunteering, clearly allocating time for work, volunteering, and recreation (remember – without the latter, we will not last long, and we enter into a long confrontation).

Those who enlisted in the military enlistment offices in the first days and still have not received a call should also think about possible ways. To begin with, it is necessary to determine how strong the desire to fight is. If you have enough sense of duty from being registered, but if you are not called, you will not sleep badly – you should just look again at the military registration and enlistment office and check whether you are really on the lists or in the mess of the first day’s war, all those hastily collected lists have long been lost, and in the latter case to renew the “place in the queue.” As we enter a long war, the turn is likely to come sooner or later, and the threat of “missing out” is not so great. In the meantime, focus on work, and if possible on volunteering in your free time. (Source: Facebook).