Date—June 13, 2022

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Stories

1. In the occupied Melitopol, under the Russian military’s control, on June 12, there was an explosion. It happened at about 17:45 near the monument to the T-70 tank on Heroiv Ukrainy Street. The area of ​​the incident has been cordoned off, and Russian security forces are checking cars and searching “suspicious” people. Representatives of the Russian-appointed “new authorities” in Melitopol and the Zaporizhzhia region said that the explosion occurred near the building of the “city department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs” (it is not located in the same place where the Ukrainian police department was located). They blamed “Ukrainian saboteurs” for this. The explosion injured a man and a woman. Bombers allegedly planted the bomb in a garbage can. June 12 is the Russian public holiday Day of Russia. Russian forces organized events on this holiday, including in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Russia has been waging war against Ukraine since February 24. At the beginning of the war, Putin announced that Russia would not occupy Ukrainian territories. However, according to numerous official and unofficial statements, the Russian Federation plans to annex areas in southern Ukraine that it managed to settle in the first days of the war. (Source: Meduza).

Announcements

1. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will arrive in Kyiv on June 16. The trip will take place before the EU summit, the G7 meeting and the NATO summit. The visit of Draghi, Scholz and Macron is intended to demonstrate the support of the three largest European countries for Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky. (Source: La Stampa).

War

1. Gaidai: Orcs control 70% of Severodonetsk. “Mass evacuation and transportation of humanitarian goods due to the shelling are impossible. The military manages to evacuate only a few people a day,” – said the head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Sergei Gaidai. About 500 people remain at the Azot plant, 40 of them children. The industrial zone is heavily shelled by large-caliber enemy artillery. “Azot”’s shelters are not as strong as those in Mariupol’s Azovstal, we are trying to make an organized evacuation with security guarantees. Earlier, all the people there refused to leave the city. There is no threat of encirclement of our troops in the Luhansk region. In Lysychansk, the Russians intensified shelling, firing from large calibers, the city is being destroyed every day. In recent days, the largest number of dead and wounded – in this city. There is a “quiet” evacuation. (Source: Telegram).

2. UK Intelligence: Over the weekend, the battle around Sieverodonetsk has continued to rage. Over the coming months, river crossing operations are likely to be amongst the most important determining factors in the course of the war. The key, 90km long central sector of Russia’s frontline in the Donbas lies to the west of the Siverskyy Donets River. To succeed in the current operational phase of its Donbas offensive, Russia will have to complete ambitious flanking actions or conduct assault river crossings. Ukrainian forces have often managed to demolish bridges before they withdraw, while Russia has struggled to put in place the complex coordination necessary to conduct successful, large-scale river crossings under fire. (Source: Twitter).

Opinions

1. ISW: As of June 12, the Russian forces have difficulty forming additional combat-ready units. Based on brigades and regiments in the Russian army, they are trying to create third battalion tactical groups. In contrast, RF can usually make only two, even leaving the base units severely understaffed. These BTGs will rely on recruits and mobilized reservists, and as a result, they will not have the combat power of conventional BTGs. The main target of the Russian military campaign remains the south Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Lugansk regions. Russian forces will likely continue pushing back Ukrainian troops in the northeast of the Kharkiv region to prevent further advance toward the border with Russia. However, attempts to advance in the direction of Staritsa and Rubizhne have been unsuccessful. In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, the efforts of the Russian army are focused on holding defensive lines from Ukrainian counterattacks. Finally, the Russian authorities used Russia Day further to strengthen administrative control in the temporarily occupied territories. In their opinion, Moscow thus creates conditions for the potential annexation of these territories in the future or another political device of its choice. (Source: Telegram).

2. The last bridge connecting Lysychansk and Severodonetsk was blown up, which means only one thing, our Azot group was surrounded. (Source: Telegram).

Military Help

1. Podolyak: Being straightforward – to end the war we need heavy weapons parity: 1000 howitzers caliber 155 mm; 300 MLRS; 500 tanks; 2000 armored vehicles; 1000 drones. Contact Group of Defense Ministers meeting is held in Brussels on June 15. We are waiting for a decision. (Source: Twitter).

Invasion Damage

1. An adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, Piotr Andryushchenko, said that Russian forces posted messages on damaged houses saying they would be “demolished within two weeks.” Russian forces demand residents leave these houses. In the Donetsk region, the demolition of homes has “significantly accelerated,” Residents are allegedly restricted from entering apartments, even in the surviving parts of the houses, not allowing them to take their belongings. In April, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russian troops destroyed up to 98 percent of the buildings in Mariupol. In early June, the Russian Investigative Committee claimed that 70 percent of the houses were “severely damaged” and 20 percent beyond repair. Responsibility for the destruction of the UK laid on the “Kyiv regime.” RF will engage the authorities of St. Petersburg in restoration work in Mariupol. In particular, Governor Alexander Beglov announced plans to restore the Drama Theater, the destruction of which could have killed up to 600 people, as well as three schools and three kindergartens. (Source: Meduza).

Foreign news

1. CREA: in 100 days of the war, Russia earned 93 billion euros from the export of fossil fuels. This was stated by the Finnish Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA). 61% of Russia’s exports of Russian fossil fuels, worth about 57 billion euros, came from the EU. The biggest buyers were China (12.6 billion euros), Germany (12.1 billion euros), and Italy (7.8 billion euros). (Source: Ъ).