Date—August 25, 2022

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Stories

1. As a result of a rocket attack on the village of Chapline in the Dnipropetrovsk region, 25 people died, and the rescue and search operations have been completed. The deputy head of the Office of the President, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, noted: “The rescue and search operations have been completed in the village of Chapline. As a result of shelling of the residential sector and the railway station, 25 people died, two of them children.” An 11-year-old boy died under the rubble of a house. Another 6-year-old was killed in a car fire near the railway station. Another 31 people were injured as a result of the attack. Three railwaymen were among the dead. Among the 31 wounded are two children and four railway workers. On August 24, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced that 22 people were killed and about 50 others were injured during a rocket attack on the Chaplyne railway station in the Dnipropetrovsk region. (Source: Telegram).

War

1. On the Independence Day of Ukraine, August 24, Russian troops made about 200 sorties, but the frequency of missile strikes was much lower. 8 Kh-22 cruise missiles hit different regions of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said at a briefing. In total, there were indeed about 190 repeated alarms in the regions… Yesterday, even though there were many such alarms, no significant missile activity was recorded, but a considerable aviation activity was recorded. About 200 flights were recorded on August 24. The enemy mainly used Tu-22 M3 long-range bombers, which carry the Kh-22 missile, for attacks on Ukraine… 8 arrivals of these missiles were recorded in the regions. The enemy also used the Tornado-C rocket salvo systems. Ignat explained a large number of air alarms by the fact that Russia also carried out many “simulation flights,” mainly from the Shaykovka airfield – for Tu-22s, as well as from the north of the Caspian Sea – for Tu-95 MS aircraft. Planes took off and maneuvered in the air, simulating an impact – and at such a time, an air alert was announced in Ukraine. (Source: UP).

2. In recent days, there have been reports of the active activities of Ukrainian special forces and partisans in occupied Crimea – whether spontaneous combustions or children playing with cigarettes at several warehouses and headquarters of Russian ammunition. Counting these losses now is completely pointless: there are not enough details to say exactly what happened there, and the cumulative effects are much more critical. In the early morning of August 21, the Ukrainian Air Defense Forces claimed to have shot down two Kalibr cruise missiles, and the Air Force claimed that their pilots (i.e., one of the MiG-29 and Su-27 interceptors?) shot down a Ka-52 rotorcraft. The Air Force of Ukraine continues to carry out about a dozen airstrikes per day (almost exclusively in the Kherson area); VKS of the Russian Federation — up to 60-70 (especially in Kharkiv Oblast, but also in Kherson Oblast). Both sides still primarily use the inefficient/rarely effective “pray and pray” method. More effective are Ukrainian strikes with AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles (as expected, piloted by Ukrainian MiG-29s): on August 21, it was announced that two S-300 air defense systems had been disabled. Ironically, this does not seriously affect Russia’s ability to defend its troops because Moscow’s Keystone cops currently use S-300 Wunderwaffe air defense systems as ballistic missiles, “replacing” them with S-350 and “Buk M3”. When I talk about using the S-300 as ballistic missiles, I mean using “dozens” of them. For example, on the eve of Ukraine’s Independence Day, the authorities in Kyiv warned their citizens about a possible large-scale missile attack by Russia. The main reason for concern is the growing concentration of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of Belarus: because Russia is critically short of other types of guided missiles, and they may want to deploy them to strike Kyiv. According to various sources, at least three ships of the Black Sea Fleet with Kalibr cruise missiles are currently at sea: they should hit today or tomorrow. In general, the Russians returned to the attack, especially with full artillery support – in several directions. After the break, the Russian Armed Forces returned to shelling Kharkiv and hitting it with S-300 air defense systems. Russia launched a series of airstrikes against the Armed Forces’ positions along the front line in the Rubizhny area because the Ukrainians were using them to attack Russian supply routes in the Rubizhny area. Raisins. Small Russian units conducted active surveillance, but in 2-3 days, when the Ukrainians repelled 4-5 small attacks in the general direction of Barvinkovo, there were no new assaults. Such places as Brazhkivka, Dovgenske, and Bogorodicne remain either no-man’s land or under the control of Ukraine. Seversk Fierce fighting was reported on the part of Ivano-Darivka and Spirnyi, but all efforts of the separatists were unsuccessful. Bakhmut. In the end, the Russians failed to capture Soledar; meanwhile, they are again shelling the village and the Ukrainian positions around it. On the other hand, fighting in residential areas is reported in the Bakhmut district. At the same time, considering everything, the Armed Forces of Ukraine strengthened its artillery in this area to such an extent that the Russian Armed Forces and the separatists had a severe problem when trying to cross the flat and open terrain to get closer to Ukrainian positions. In turn, the Russians conduct intensive shelling and constantly carry out spray attacks. At the same time, Russian invaders entered the southern part of Zaitsevo. Kodema is still holding despite Russian attacks from three directions (northeast, south, and south-west). The AFU still have too little artillery to support their units along the Line of Control. Yes, the separatist attacks on Krasnohorivka failed. Thus the Ukrainian stronghold in Avdiivka remains under the strict control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but this is where the “good news” from the old front line between Ukraine and the separatists in Donbas ends. First of all, further south, the Russians already completely control Pisky. From there, as well as from the east and south, they advance through open and flat terrain to Nevelsk. The Armed Forces of Ukraine reinforced the front line there with two battalions of marines. My impression: too little, too late. In a rare similar case in recent weeks, Ukrainian artillery blew up the headquarters of one of the separatist units in Donetsk and another ammunition depot east of the city. The Ukrainian stronghold of Mariintka has come under several attacks over the past few days (almost all from the north) — all supported by extensive incendiary attacks — but fortunately, it has held out. At least there is good news from the southern border of the LoK: the Ukrainian defense line connecting Zolota Niva with Pavlivka is holding. Probably because the ZSU seems to have brought a brand new unit to the area: the 66th Mechanized Brigade. After the failure of the last Ukrainian attack in the Blagodatny area (stopped by Russian artillery) three or four days ago, the Russian Armed Forces launched three significant counterattacks. Ukrainian artillery seems to have suffered heavy losses near Blagodatny. Stanislav’s Russian counterattack on Oleksandrivka was successful—the latter was taken—but less successful when the Russians tried to continue their advance toward Tavriyskyi. The Ingulets bridgehead was struck but appeared to have been less successful—perhaps because the Ukrainians claimed the destruction of two radars, two 120mm mortars, and Gigant-S and Msta-S self-propelled howitzers in this district. On August 22, the Russian Air Force and VKS attacked Mykolaiv with at least four S-300s and one Kh-31. The latter was shot down. One or two Kh-59s were fired upon by Su-35s for an “infrastructure target” in the direction of Odesa: at least one was shot down. Ukrainians do not report casualties. In turn, the Armed Forces are keeping the remaining Russian assets under pressure, crossing the Dnipro (just as necessary), and the other day fired at the Antonivka bridge and the dam near the Kakhovskaya HPP with M142 HIMARS. In both cases, the hits caused fires, indicating that “something” that was either passing through the bridges or involved in their repair had ignited. People’s intelligence claims that something “passing” under the Antonivka bridge was also hit, at least 2-5 were killed and went missing, and about 20 were wounded. As far as I know, there must have been a pontoon bridge “under” the Antonivka bridge, which the Russian occupiers are building. (Source: NV).

3. Explosions near the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson. At 5 o’clock in the morning on August 25, explosions thundered in the area of ​​the Antonovsky bridge. In the area of the bridge in Russian-occupied Kherson, the sounds of explosions were heard, and then a fire started. Videos from the scene have surfaced online. Sounds of explosions can be heard in the footage, but it is impossible to determine the place in question from the video. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet confirmed the next strikes on the Antonovsky Bridge. (Source: BBC).

4. In the six months since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry has lost 12,142 units of military equipment worth $16.56 billion, excluding missiles. The Ukrainian version of Forbes magazine gives such calculations. For six months of the war, the Russian army lost 1924 tanks, 234 aircraft, 199 helicopters, 15 ships, and 196 cruise missiles. Forbes named the most costly losses of the Russian military. It is the Moskva missile cruiser (the publication estimates its cost at $ 750 million); an Il-76 aircraft (Ukraine reported that it was shot down in late February in the Kyiv region; although there is no visual confirmation of this. According to Forbes, the aircraft costs $ 86 million); the large landing ship “Saratov” (according to the magazine, it costs 75 million dollars).(Source: Forbes).

Opinions

1. ISW: Since mid-March, the Russians have lost control of an area larger than Denmark but have managed to occupy a space the size of Andorra (a percentage of what they lost) in the last 39 days. Since Russian forces resumed offensive operations after a pause on July 16, Russian troops have gained about 450.84 square kilometers of new territory, roughly the size of Andorra. Russian troops have lost approximately 45,000 square kilometers of territory since March 21 – an area larger than Denmark. Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum, northeast, and south of Bakhmut, and west and southwest of Donetsk. The Russians also carried out a little ground attack northwest of the Kherson region. The Russians will probably never be able to allocate enough resources for any offensive operation. They will not be able to seize more territory in the coming months unless events unfold in an “unpredictable way.” (Source: ISW).

2. Budanov: The turning point in the war with the Russians has already begun. “This is not at all the second army of the world, and not even the fourth. And retribution will come. The understanding that there will be retribution comes when people begin to see and feel that the war is not somewhere in some part of the world but for them. Therefore, the turning point has already begun,” Major General Kyrylo Budanov said. The Russians began to understand that their army was not that strong, the air defense systems were not that good, and the Russian military could not protect the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory. (Source: UP).